Theta Compass — Market Regime

by ThetaLoop Research
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Excellent ↓ -1
Is today a good day to sell puts?
VIX
15.81
↓ falling ↓ -0.34
Breadth
81.8%
9/11 bull
SPY
BULL
vs SMA200

Today's Market Regime

The broad regime is aligned for put-selling research. The S&P 500 sits above its 200-day moving average, breadth is broad at 81.8% (9/11 sectors), and volatility is compressed, so the same trend support comes with thinner premium. The useful read is alignment: trend, participation, and volatility are not fighting each other.

VIX at 15.81 is in the low range. Further compression thins premium without removing gap risk. The regime can look calm while offering less compensation for being wrong.

Sector breadth is strong — 9/11 sectors above their 200-day moving average. Participation is broad, not concentrated in a few mega-caps. Today, Technology shows elevated volatility, while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services trade below the 200-day average. Healthcare leads with +2.6% on the day, while Technology lags at -2.7%.

Research read: The broad market is doing more of the work today, but ticker selection still matters. The X-Ray scanner is best used to separate clean setups from names where the strong tape is masking event risk, thin premium, or late-stage extension.

Sector Volatility & Regime
Sector Volatility 1d Change
🟢 Technology High -2.71% 🔴 Communication Services Normal -0.13% 🟢 Healthcare Normal +2.63% 🟢 Real Estate Normal +1.13% 🟢 Industrials Normal +0.3% 🔴 Consumer Discretionary Normal -0.82% 🟢 Materials Normal +1.94% 🟢 Consumer Staples Normal +2.03% 🟢 Financial Normal +1.53% 🟢 Utilities Normal +2.21% 🟢 Energy Low +0.78%
ℹ️ How this works
The Theta Score (1-10) aggregates multiple market dimensions into a single research indicator for Cash-Secured Put strategies. Higher = more favorable conditions.

VIX — Expected market volatility. The sweet spot for put sellers is typically 16-25.
Breadth — Percentage of sectors trading above their 200-day moving average.
SPY Regime — S&P 500 above (BULL) or below (BEAR) its SMA200.
Sector Volatility — Relative ranking based on recent price ranges vs historical norms.

Theta decay works in your favor as a put seller — the Compass tells you when conditions are most favorable to harvest it.

This is quantitative research, not a trading recommendation.
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