Theta Compass — Market Regime

by ThetaLoop Research
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Favorable ↑ +1
Is today a good day to sell puts?
VIX
15.01
↓ falling ↓ -0.51
Breadth
36.4%
4/11 bull
SPY
BULL
vs SMA200

Today's Market Regime

Constructive market conditions, but not a blank check. The S&P 500 holds above its 200-day moving average and breadth at 36.4% (4/11 sectors) is broad enough to support the regime, while volatility is compressed, so the same trend support comes with thinner premium. The Compass is reading a supportive backdrop, not a guarantee of clean single-name setups.

VIX at 15.01 is in the low range. Further compression thins premium without removing gap risk. The regime can look calm while offering less compensation for being wrong.

Sector breadth is weak — only 4/11 sectors above their 200-day moving average. This points to broad-based selling pressure rather than isolated weakness. Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Industrials trade below the 200-day average, which weakens the trend support behind those pockets of the market. Utilities leads with +3.0% on the day, while Healthcare lags at -0.2%.

Research read: The backdrop is supportive but not broad enough to treat every premium opportunity the same way. Individual X-Ray quality carries more weight here than the headline Compass score.

Sector Volatility & Regime
Sector Volatility 1d Change
🟢 Energy Normal +0.47% 🟢 Financial Normal +0.24% 🔴 Communication Services Normal +0.04% 🔴 Utilities Normal +2.98% 🔴 Real Estate Low +1.06% 🔴 Industrials Low +0.87% 🟢 Healthcare Low -0.17% 🔴 Materials Low +0.46% 🔴 Consumer Discretionary Low +1.18% 🔴 Consumer Staples Low +0.94% 🟢 Technology Low +0.53%
ℹ️ How this works
The Theta Score (1-10) aggregates multiple market dimensions into a single research indicator for Cash-Secured Put strategies. Higher = more favorable conditions.

VIX — Expected market volatility. The sweet spot for put sellers is typically 16-25.
Breadth — Percentage of sectors trading above their 200-day moving average.
SPY Regime — S&P 500 above (BULL) or below (BEAR) its SMA200.
Sector Volatility — Relative ranking based on recent price ranges vs historical norms.

Theta decay works in your favor as a put seller — the Compass tells you when conditions are most favorable to harvest it.

This is quantitative research, not a trading recommendation.
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